Average cost of Bakken oil

April  2017

The full text of this article has been published on Seeking Alpha (see here).

 Required WTI prices have been calculated for the average Bakken well for the years 2014, 2016 and a future recovery scenario. Incremental and full cost cases so as  two rates of return (break even an IRR15 – the investment case) have been considered.   The calculated WTI prices for 2016 are still somewhat preliminary in the article. 

The relevant input data are described here.

The main results are shown in the tables below. They are explained and  discussed in the mentioned Seeking Alpha article.

Required WTI prices

Required WTI

 2014 2016
Recovery
Incremental cost case ($/bo)
     
Break even 61 43 49
IRR=15% 72 49 58
Full cost case ($/bo)
     
Break even 90 66 76
IRR=15% 104 75 86
Full cost case – NO Debt ($/bo)
Break even 99 74 84
IRR=15% 124 89 103

Production data

The results are based on the average IP30 values for the respective years (560, 630, 610) , the described decline curves and GOR trends.

Production

 2014 2016
Recovery
IP30 (boe/d) 687 774 748
EUR Well (boe)
528 595 567
EUR oil Co. owned, sold (1000 boe) 300 338 322
EUR NG+NGL Co. owned, sold (1000 boe) 98 117 118
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